For decades, Moore’s Law has defied expectations. Even Gordon Moore himself did not anticipate how long exponential improvements in computing power would continue, and yet, fueled by massive capital and relentless innovation, it has outpaced even the most skeptical predictions.
The lesson? Technology doesn’t just evolve—it accelerates, often in unpredictable ways.
But hardware is only one part of the equation. Every 5 to 10 years, we witness a fundamental shift in how software is consumed. We moved from floppy disks to web and SaaS, then to mobile-first applications, and now AI-driven agents are reshaping the user interface paradigm entirely. And when interfaces change, entire software stacks must follow.
The Hidden Risk in Long-Term Technology Amortization
Some organizations treat technology investments like physical infrastructure, expecting to amortize software decisions over 5 to 10 years. While this mindset may work for capital expenditures like real estate or manufacturing, it is dangerous when applied to software and infrastructure. The reality is: technology landscapes shift faster than financial models can predict.
When I’ve worked with teams planning technology amortization over a decade, the biggest concern isn’t financial — it’s strategic blindness. No one can reliably “see around corners” far enough to predict the next major disruption. The longer the amortization timeline, the greater the risk of being blindsided by a tectonic industry shift.
The Trap of Version 4 Thinking
In early-stage markets, lean development principles make perfect sense. When you’re building an MVP, proving product-market fit, and crossing the chasm, agility and iteration are more valuable than long-term planning. However, by the time a product reaches Version 4, the mindset tends to shift.
At this stage, teams often believe that their market is stable, their software architecture is mature, and their stack can be amortized for the long term. But history tells us otherwise. Just when companies feel comfortable stretching their amortization timeline, an industry shift can render their assumptions obsolete.
Learning From Bezos: What Won't Change?
Jeff Bezos built Amazon by focusing not just on what will change, but on what won’t. Instead of chasing trends, he zeroed in on fundamental human behaviors—customers will always want lower prices, fast delivery, and a vast selection.
Applying this principle to technology, we should ask: What are the fundamental truths in software development?
- Engineers will always value speed and efficiency.
- Development processes will always need to scale with growth.
- Users will always demand faster, more intuitive experiences.
With this lens, long-term technology decisions should focus less on specific tools and more on principles that endure — automation, scalability, and adaptability. Any system that limits these core principles will eventually be replaced.
The Rule of 3: Why Growth Forces Change
Reed Hastings, co-founder of Netflix, coined the Rule of 3, which states that processes and tooling break when a company or team triples in size. What worked at 10 engineers won’t work at 30, and what worked at 30 won’t work at 100. Every 3x growth forces a re-evaluation of how teams build, deploy, and maintain software.
This reinforces why long amortization cycles is only feasible in very few extraordinary circumstances. A team planning a 10-year horizon may see multiple 3x growth cycles in that timeframe, each one requiring fundamental changes to how development is done. The assumption that tooling and architectures can remain static ignores the reality of organizational and operational scaling.
Navigating the Uncertainty: Strategic Technology Investments
Instead of relying on long amortization cycles, forward-thinking engineering leaders should:
- Adopt a Modular Approach – Favour architectures that allow for evolutionary change rather than wholesale rewrites.
- Monitor Interface Shifts – Track how users interact with software, as interface changes often signal deeper shifts in technology needs.
- Invest in Adaptability – Prioritize flexibility over short-term cost efficiency, ensuring that your tech stack can pivot when necessary.
- Rethink ROI Timelines – Instead of assuming a 10-year horizon, consider the half-life of the technologies you rely on and adjust investment strategies accordingly.
- Plan for Growth Cycles – Use the Rule of 3 to anticipate when scaling will demand new processes and infrastructure.,
The Bottom Line
Long amortization timelines are a comforting illusion in a world of accelerating technological change. Leaders who assume stability risk being caught off guard when the next wave of innovation disrupts their market.
The better approach? Stay nimble, invest in adaptability, and recognize that the biggest risk is assuming you have time.